We are on the eve of the US Mid Term elections where 1/3rd of the Senate seats are up for grabs along with all 435 House of Representative seats. Although I’m fully aware of how boring politics can be for some people, making money is never boring.
A vast amount of people bet on political outcomes like they would for any other sport. Keeping this in mind throughout the last two weeks I’ve been closely following the polling, odds and news cycle for the US elections.
This has led me to pinpoint specific contests where I feel a substantial amount of money can be made.
Firstly, it is important to note that Democrats are forecasted to win the House of Representatives (Currently controlled by the Republicans) but the Republicans are predicted to keep control of the Senate.
The highly respected opinion poll website called FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats a 1/6 chance of capturing control of the senate while the Republicans are seen to have a 5/6 chance.
Paddy Power gives the odds of a Republican majority in the Senate at 1/6 while a Democratic majority is at 14/1.
When it comes to the House however, the Democrats are deemed to be in with a 7/8 chance of taking control while the Republicans are in with a 1/8 chance of retaining their majority.
PaddyPower gives the odds of a Democratic majority in the house as 4/11 while a Republican majority is at 15/8.
A big Democratic performance is expected. This is shown in polls such as the highly thought of SSRS Research group which has the Democrats having a 13% lead on the generic ballot.
To add to this the USC Dormsife/LA Times poll shows a wave of support for Democrats with them having a 17 point lead over Republicans heading into the mid terms. This same poll also saw a wave of support for Donald Tump in 2016 when others didn’t.
I have outlined below the specific contests where a decent amount of money may be made.
Florida 26th District
In this case we have the Democratic candidate Debbie Mucrassell-Powell taking on incumbent Republican Carlos Curbelo. The partisan lean of the Florida 26th District is Democrat+9.8. The partisan lean is a measurement of how strongly a Congressional District leans toward the Republican or Democratic Party compared to the nation as a whole.
FiveThirtyEight gives Debbie Powell a 5/9 chance of winning while giving Carlos Cubelo a 4/9 chance of winning.
FiveThirtyEight predicts Debbie Powell obtaining a 50.3% vote share while Carlos Cubelo is predicted to achieve a 49.7% vote share.
Paddypower gives odds of a victory for Debbie Powell at 8/11 while Carlos Cubelo is in at Evs (1/1)
Paul’s Prediction: An increased Democratic turnout nationally and a strong leaning Democratic constituency should be enough for Debbie Powell to unseat the incumbent Republican.
Debbie Powell 8/11
California 48th District
Here we have the Democratic candidate Harley Rouda taking on Republican Dana Rohrabacher. The partisan lean of this District is Republican +6.7.
FiveThirtyEight gives Harley Rouda a 4/7 chance of winning while giving Rohrabacher a 3/7 chance of winning.
FiveThirtyEight predicts Harley Rouda obtaining a 50.5% vote share while Dana Rohrabacher is predicted to achieve a 49.5% vote share.
Paddypower gives odds of a victory for Harley Rouda at 4/7 while Dana Rohrabacher is in at 5/4
Paul’s Prediction: Although there is a lean in this District towards Republican, a strong Democratic turnout in a state with overall very strong support for the Democrats has me relatively confident Harley Rouda will win the day.
Harley Rouda 4/7
California 39th District
In this District the Democratic candidate Gil Cisneros is facing Republican Young Kim. The Partisan lean of this District is Democrat+0.5.
FiveThirtyEight gives Gil Cisneros a 4/7 chance of winning while giving Young Kim a 3/7 chance of winning.
FiveThirtyEight predicts Gil Cisneros obtaining a 50.7% vote share while Young Kim is forcasted to achieve a 49.3% vote share.
Paddypower gives odds of a victory for Gil Cisneros at 8/13 while Young Kim is in at 11/10
Paul’s Prediction: This District essentially leans 50/50. While it is no doubt a toss up FiveThirtyEight give a slight chance to the Democratic candidate. Taking into account the Democratic enthusiasm for this mid term election and a strong foretasted overall performance I see Gil Cisneros taking the seat here.
Gil Cisneros 8/13
Texas 7th District
Here we have the Democratic candidate Lizzie Fletcher taking on Republican John Culberson. The Partisan lean of this District is Republican +11.8.
FiveThirtyEight gives Lizzie Fletcher a 1/2 chance of winning while giving John Culberson also a 1/2 chance.
FiveThirtyEight predicts Lizzie Flecther obtaining a 50.1% vote share while John Culberson is forecasted to achieve a 49.1% vote share.
Paddypower gives odds of a victory for Lizzie Fletcher at 5/6 while John Culberson is also in at 5/6
Paul’s Prediction: Although this is another toss up, it is still noteworthy that it is a strong Republican District. I would also expect the Republican vote in Texas to be mobilized to ensure Ted Cruz keeps his Senate seat. It is also noteworthy that John Culberson is the incumbent giving him a further advantage. For these reasons I’d suggest putting your money on John Culberson.
John Culberson 5/6
For the Florida Senate seat we have the Democratic candidate Bill Nelson taking on Republican Rick Scott. The Partisan lean of this state is Republican +5.4.
FiveThirtyEight gives Bill Nelson a 2/3 chance of winning while giving Rick Scott a 1/3 chance of winning.
FiveThirtyEight predicts Bill Nelson obtaining a 51.3% vote share while Rick Scott is forecasted to achieve a 48.7% vote share.
Paddypower gives the odds for Bill Nelson at 8/11 while Rick Scott is in at Evs (1/1)
Paul’s Prediction: Although the partisan lean of the state is in favor of the Republicans, I firmly believe by the Democrats doing well nationally and getting their vote out nationally should translate to the state of Florida. For this reason it’s hard to look past Bill Nelson.
Bill Nelson 8/11